Saskatchewan projects $825M deficit in first quarter of 2026-27

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By comparison, Saskatchewan finished the 2025-26 fiscal year with an operating deficit of $947 million, down from a projected $12 million surplus.

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The total revenue forecast for 2026-27 is $21.7 billion, while total expenses are expected to hit $22.6 billion.

Revenue is projected to be $331 million higher than the budget’s projections in the first quarter, according to the provincial government, primarily because revenue coming from non-renewable resources is expected to be $320 million higher than budgeted.

“Higher-than-expected oil prices due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in the West Texas Intermediate oil price forecast being increased to US $75.00 per barrel compared to a projected US $59.75 per barrel in the 2026-27 budget,” the province said in a statement.

According to the government, total expenses are projected to be $337 million higher than the budget projected, mainly because of pressures in the health-care system, including “growing service demand, inflation, and compensation costs.”

Another factor in the higher expense forecast was the flooding that hit many parts of the province earlier this year. Specifically, the provincial government said it’s a consequence of the “flood-related response and recovery efforts and higher Crop Insurance claims resulting from unseeded acres due to excess moisture in the spring.”

Saskatchewan’s economic outlook is better than it was when the 2026-27 budget was released, partly because of construction and an improved commodity outlook.

“Saskatchewan is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing provincial economies over the next two years,” the government noted.

As a result, real GDP growth is expected to place Saskatchewan third among Canadian provinces in 2026 and second in 2027.

“Saskatchewan’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 14.9 per cent as of March 31, 2027,” the province added.

That’s an improvement from the 16.1 per cent ratio projected in this year’s budget, and would put Saskatchewan’s net debt-to-GDP ratio second-best among the provinces.

“Saskatchewan also continues to have the highest credit rating among provinces,” the government added.

The full 2026-27 First Quarter Financial Report is available on the Government of Saskatchewan’s website.

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